El Niño

All of the talk here in the northwest of the USA is about El Niño, an offshore flow of warm water.  Half of the pundits are screaming about how there will be no snows and water restrictions must be implemented now if the salmon will have water next year.  Other half are buying snow tires and chains.

So, an internet search shows that there were moderate El Niño events in:
2002/3
2009/10

Strong El Niño none since the 1970's

Very Strong El Niño in none since 1997

Now we know that the  El Niño flow which messes up the weather here in he Northwest is cyclical - every six to seven years it pops up.  So, is 2015/6 in the range?  Yes.

The last moderate El Niño was in 2009/10 winter.  So, this winter or next winter would be a candidate for a moderate or stronger event.

So what does happen when there is an El Niño winter?

Historically, heavy rains and high snow accumulation!  So ... yeah the numbers do look like snow in the the future of this winter - December and/or January.  This last event buried Seattle under 9.5 inches of snow in January 2010 and December 2009 was a real soaker, almost 9 inches of rain as well!

So how can the pundits be screaming for water restrictions?

Because the Northwest has lost most of its permanent snow pack and glaciers are in full retreat, so there is little water reserve.  If no snow, if no hard rains as previous El Niño winters have produced, well then preservation of what there is available is a must.

So, both sides of the pundit groups are leaning towards to their concept of the correct!  Do you gamble that the snows and rains are coming or do you preserve?  Do you buy snow tires and chains or skip it?  Do you check out your heavy winter gear or not put away your summer clothes?

There is only one correct answer and I prefer to never gamble - I am buying snow tires in November ...

Last weekend, I was down on the Columbia river, where it is apparent that the Columbia is about 9 feet lower than in the recent past.  Food for thought.